What this page shows
Every team with a posted moneyline this week, its opponent, where the game is played and when it kicks off, and the team’s probability of winning, ranked from the strongest favourite down. It is the starting point for a survivor pool pick: the week’s safest teams in one list, refreshed as the sportsbook lines move. The page is the same for everyone. A free account adds the pool tracker, where you record each entry’s picks, see who is still alive and keep every entry’s used-team inventory; a subscription adds the Survivor Board, with the projected share of the public on each team, each team’s value in later weeks and the full season grid.
Where do these win probabilities come from?
From the moneylines sportsbooks post on each game. A book’s two prices on a game add up to more than 100%, and the difference is the book’s margin. For every game this week the margin is taken out of each book’s pair so the two sides sum to 100%, and the books are then averaged with equal weight. A figure carrying a marker on the table is an average that still includes the sportsbook margin.
How often are the numbers updated?
They are recomputed each time the sportsbook lines are refreshed, through the week and again each morning, so the table moves with the market rather than freezing at the opening line. A game that has kicked off keeps the figure it went in with, and a finished game drops off the table.
Which week does the page show?
The current week only: the next week with a game still to be played. Future weeks, the full season grid of win probabilities, the projected share of the public on each team and each team’s future value are on the Survivor Board, which is part of a TouchdownPredict subscription.
Is the highest win probability the best survivor pick?
It is the safest single pick, but a survivor pool is won by outlasting the field, not by winning one week. A heavy favourite is also the team most of the pool is likely to be on, so if it loses, nearly everyone goes out together and the pool barely thins; a slightly less likely winner that fewer entries are on can be worth more. What you have left matters too: a team used now cannot be used again, and a strong team has value in later weeks. This table is the first input, the win probability; the Survivor Board adds the projected pick share and future value beside it.
Does the probability include ties?
No. It is a two-way figure, the chance the team wins rather than loses, with no adjustment for a tie. How a tie counts is a rule of your pool, and the pool tracker applies the rule you set for it.
How the win probabilities are computed
Each sportsbook’s moneyline pair on a game is converted into two probabilities with the book’s margin removed, so that the two sides of the game sum to 100%, and the books are averaged with equal weight. The result is the market’s collective read of the game, not any one book’s price, and it is served as a probability rather than as odds. A figure the table marks is an average that still carries the sportsbook margin.
The whole table is rebuilt whenever the lines refresh. A game that has kicked off is not repriced, so its figure is the one it went in with, and a game that has finished is removed. Only games in the current week appear here.
