Question 1

What is on this list?

Accepted Answer

The ten batters on today’s MLB slate that our home run model rates most likely to hit a home run, ranked from the top. Only batters projected or confirmed into a starting lineup are ranked, and games that have been postponed are left out.

Question 2

What does the HR probability mean?

Accepted Answer

It is the model’s estimated chance that the batter hits at least one home run in that game. Even the top of the list is well under a coin flip — home runs are rare events — which is why the ranking matters more than any single number.

Question 3

What does the grade mean?

Accepted Answer

Every matchup gets a letter grade from the model, from A+ at the top down to F, as a quick read on how strong the home run setup is.

Question 4

How is this different from the full Home Runs model?

Accepted Answer

This page shows the top ten. The full Home Runs model ranks every batter in a projected lineup and adds the best available odds, value plays, and a breakdown of each matchup. It is part of a HomerunPredict subscription.

Rank↑	Batter↕	Batter Team↕	Matchup↕	Pitcher↕	Pitcher Team↕	Game Time↕	HR Probability↕	Grade↕
1	Cal Raleigh	SEA	SEA @ ATH	Jeffrey Springs	ATH	9:40 PM ET	26.7%	A+
2	Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	PIT @ CHC	Shota Imanaga	CHC	2:20 PM ET	25.8%	A+
3	Julio Rodríguez	SEA	SEA @ ATH	Jeffrey Springs	ATH	9:40 PM ET	23.4%	A+
4	Samuel Basallo	BAL	BAL @ TOR	Max Scherzer	TOR	7:07 PM ET	23.2%	A+
5	Pete Alonso	BAL	BAL @ TOR	Max Scherzer	TOR	7:07 PM ET	23.2%	A+
6	Colton Cowser	BAL	BAL @ TOR	Max Scherzer	TOR	7:07 PM ET	23.0%	A+
7	Taylor Ward	SEA	SEA @ ATH	Jeffrey Springs	ATH	9:40 PM ET	23.0%	A+
8	Randy Arozarena	SEA	SEA @ ATH	Jeffrey Springs	ATH	9:40 PM ET	23.0%	A+
9	Rafael Flores Jr.	PIT	PIT @ CHC	Shota Imanaga	CHC	2:20 PM ET	22.6%	A+
10	Oneil Cruz	PIT	PIT @ CHC	Shota Imanaga	CHC	2:20 PM ET	22.1%	A+

MLB Home Run Predictions

About MLB Home Run Predictions

Today's most likely home run hitters

What is on this list?

What does the HR probability mean?

What does the grade mean?

How is this different from the full Home Runs model?