Pitcher Vulnerabilities & Home Run Targets - October 28, 2026

Today's preview centers on two starters with a meaningful read — Jacob Misiorowski and Drew Rasmussen — and the full-game home-run targets their matchups unlock. Misiorowski carries the heavier vulnerability of the pair, posting an xSLG allowed of .467, while Rasmussen's .483 mark makes him the softer arm on the board today. The top targets section highlights four hitters worth watching across these starts, led by Jonathan Aranda (LHB, 17.6% HR probability) and Junior Caminero (RHB, 16.3%) both drawing on Misiorowski, with full-game odds of +1076 and +525 respectively.

The matchup angles section adds further texture: ten miss-distance opportunities and four heart-zone edges round out the picture for today's slate. Because these are full-game props, every target remains live whether the opposing starter finishes five innings or two — bullpen exposure is part of the read from first pitch to final out.

Today's most homer-prone starters

Today's starting pitchers most prone to the home run on contact, grouped by vulnerability tier — the arms to target.

Tier 3

• Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)RHPMIL @ TB
  xSLGcon allowed: .467Barrel%: 4.9%FB%: 25.7%BBE: 509

Low

• Drew Rasmussen (TB)RHPMIL @ TB
  xSLGcon allowed: .483Barrel%: 6.1%FB%: 23.2%BBE: 869

Top home run targets today

The bats best set up to go deep against those arms today.

• Jonathan ArandaLHBvs Jacob Misiorowski
  xSLGcon: .705Grade: BHR prob: 17.6%Best odds: +1076EV: +131.3%
• Junior CamineroRHBvs Jacob Misiorowski
  xSLGcon: .634Grade: BHR prob: 16.3%Best odds: +525EV: +9.4%
• Brice TurangLHBvs Drew Rasmussen
  xSLGcon: .634Grade: CHR prob: 13.7%Best odds: +1076EV: +77.4%
• Yandy DíazRHBvs Jacob Misiorowski
  xSLGcon: .528Grade: CHR prob: 10.8%Best odds: +900EV: +18.6%

Heart-zone matchups

Hitters who slug in the heart of the zone against starters who get punished there. League average heart-zone xSLGcon allowed: .607.

• Garrett MitchellLHBvs Rasmussen, Drew
  Heart xSLGcon: .763Pitcher allowed: .520Meatball score: 0.055
• Jake BauersLHBvs Rasmussen, Drew
  Heart xSLGcon: .722Pitcher allowed: .520Meatball score: 0.052
• Junior CamineroRHBvs Misiorowski, Jacob
  Heart xSLGcon: .749Pitcher allowed: .488Meatball score: 0.045
• Ryan ViladeRHBvs Misiorowski, Jacob
  Heart xSLGcon: .749Pitcher allowed: .488Meatball score: 0.045

Rasmussen, Drew draws 6 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. Misiorowski, Jacob draws 4 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. The board lists at most 2 matchups per pitcher.

Fast bats vs hittable heaters

Hard-swinging hitters against starters whose fastballs get squared up.

• Garrett MitchellLHBvs Rasmussen, Drew
  Bat speed (mph): 75.6FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0
• Jake BauersLHBvs Rasmussen, Drew
  Bat speed (mph): 74.3FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0
• Jackson ChourioRHBvs Rasmussen, Drew
  Bat speed (mph): 72.5FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0
• William ContrerasRHBvs Rasmussen, Drew
  Bat speed (mph): 71.5FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0
• Christian YelichLHBvs Rasmussen, Drew
  Bat speed (mph): 71.2FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0
• Cooper PrattRHBvs Rasmussen, Drew
  Bat speed (mph): 67.8FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0
• Brice TurangLHBvs Rasmussen, Drew
  Bat speed (mph): 67.2FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0
• Sal FrelickLHBvs Rasmussen, Drew
  Bat speed (mph): 65.9FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0
• David HamiltonLHBvs Rasmussen, Drew
  Bat speed (mph): 62.6FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0
• Junior CamineroRHBvs Misiorowski, Jacob
  Bat speed (mph): 77.8FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.4

Rasmussen, Drew draws 9 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups.

Always remember that betting involves risk. These are model-driven analyses provided by an AI for informational purposes only. They do not represent direct betting advice or a guarantee of any outcome. Please gamble responsibly; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.