Pitcher Vulnerabilities & Home Run Targets - September 27, 2026

Twenty-three starters drew a read today, and the headliners are hard to ignore: Max Scherzer (Blue Jays) and Shota Imanaga (Cubs) sit at the top of the tier-one list with xSLG allowed of .577 and .575, respectively, while Sean Manaea leads all tier-two arms at a hefty .597. The homer-prone starters section lays out all five flagged pitchers, and the matchup angles section surfaces ten Heart-Zone reads, ten Blast reads, and ten Miss-Distance reads worth working through.

In the top home-run targets, every one of the five highlighted bats carries an A+ grade and a full-game homer probability north of 22% — led by Kyle Schwarber (LHB) at 23.7% against the Rays' Nick Martinez, Willson Contreras (RHB) at 23.2% against Imanaga, and Elly De La Cruz at 23.0% against Scherzer. Each probability reflects the entire game, so the bullpen remains in play well after the starter exits.

Today's most homer-prone starters

Today's starting pitchers most prone to the home run on contact, grouped by vulnerability tier — the arms to target.

Tier 1

• Max Scherzer (TOR)RHPCIN @ TOR
  xSLGcon allowed: .577Barrel%: 10.6%FB%: 35.1%BBE: 490
• Shota Imanaga (CHC)LHPCHC @ BOS
  xSLGcon allowed: .575Barrel%: 10.6%FB%: 35.6%BBE: 906

Tier 2

• Peter Lambert (HOU)RHPHOU @ ATH
  xSLGcon allowed: .491Barrel%: 6.9%FB%: 32.4%BBE: 432
• Nick Martinez (TB)RHPTB @ PHI
  xSLGcon allowed: .496Barrel%: 6.8%FB%: 28.8%BBE: 1,084
• Sean Manaea (NYM)LHPNYM @ WSH
  xSLGcon allowed: .597Barrel%: 10.5%FB%: 29.0%BBE: 593
• Dean Kremer (MIN)RHPTEX @ MIN
  xSLGcon allowed: .554Barrel%: 9.0%FB%: 29.9%BBE: 735
• Randy Vásquez (SD)RHPARI @ SD
  xSLGcon allowed: .578Barrel%: 10.3%FB%: 27.9%BBE: 872
• Jared Jones (PIT)RHPPIT @ DET
  xSLGcon allowed: .530Barrel%: 7.6%FB%: 28.3%BBE: 251
• Michael Soroka (ARI)RHPARI @ SD
  xSLGcon allowed: .518Barrel%: 7.4%FB%: 28.4%BBE: 550
• MacKenzie Gore (TEX)LHPTEX @ MIN
  xSLGcon allowed: .556Barrel%: 9.4%FB%: 28.6%BBE: 911

Tier 3

• Logan Gilbert (SEA)RHPLAA @ SEA
  xSLGcon allowed: .556Barrel%: 9.5%FB%: 27.9%BBE: 824
• Kyle Freeland (COL)LHPCOL @ CWS
  xSLGcon allowed: .592Barrel%: 10.2%FB%: 26.8%BBE: 992
• Yusei Kikuchi (LAA)LHPLAA @ SEA
  xSLGcon allowed: .565Barrel%: 9.2%FB%: 25.7%BBE: 786
• Jack Dreyer (LAD)LHPLAD @ SF
  xSLGcon allowed: .486Barrel%: 6.0%FB%: 27.8%BBE: 364
• Janson Junk (MIA)RHPATL @ MIA
  xSLGcon allowed: .525Barrel%: 7.7%FB%: 23.8%BBE: 736
• Zack Wheeler (PHI)RHPTB @ PHI
  xSLGcon allowed: .485Barrel%: 6.6%FB%: 26.5%BBE: 729
• Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)RHPSTL @ MIL
  xSLGcon allowed: .466Barrel%: 5.0%FB%: 25.8%BBE: 497
• Shane Baz (BAL)RHPBAL @ NYY
  xSLGcon allowed: .536Barrel%: 8.6%FB%: 25.4%BBE: 1,032
• Anthony Kay (CWS)LHPCOL @ CWS
  xSLGcon allowed: .530Barrel%: 8.3%FB%: 22.7%BBE: 480

Low

• Parker Messick (CLE)LHPCLE @ KC
  xSLGcon allowed: .473Barrel%: 5.1%FB%: 21.6%BBE: 608
• Daniel Lynch IV (KC)LHPCLE @ KC
  xSLGcon allowed: .509Barrel%: 7.4%FB%: 24.6%BBE: 459
• Tanner Houck (BOS)RHPCHC @ BOS
  xSLGcon allowed: .597Barrel%: 8.1%FB%: 21.5%BBE: 298

Tough

• Andre Pallante (STL)RHPSTL @ MIL
  xSLGcon allowed: .474Barrel%: 5.7%FB%: 17.5%BBE: 1,016

Top home run targets today

The bats best set up to go deep against those arms today.

• Kyle SchwarberLHBvs Nick Martinez
  xSLGcon: .832Grade: A+HR prob: 23.7%Best odds: +260EV: -15.7%
• Willson ContrerasRHBvs Shota Imanaga
  xSLGcon: .758Grade: A+HR prob: 23.2%Best odds: +456EV: +28.3%
• Elly De La CruzSHBvs Max Scherzer
  xSLGcon: .683Grade: A+HR prob: 23.0%Best odds: +420EV: +16.4%
• JJ BledayLHBvs Max Scherzer
  xSLGcon: .554Grade: A+HR prob: 22.9%Best odds: +567EV: +56.6%
• Corbin CarrollLHBvs Randy Vásquez
  xSLGcon: .677Grade: A+HR prob: 22.5%Best odds: +456EV: +37.7%
• Shea LangeliersRHBvs Peter Lambert
  xSLGcon: .590Grade: A+HR prob: 22.4%Best odds: +400EV: +5.4%
• Riley GreeneLHBvs Jared Jones
  xSLGcon: .793Grade: A+HR prob: 22.0%Best odds: +475EV: +29.9%
• Cal RaleighSHBvs Yusei Kikuchi
  xSLGcon: .747Grade: AHR prob: 21.6%Best odds: +426EV: +13.4%
• Andrés ChaparroRHBvs Sean Manaea
  xSLGcon: .622Grade: AHR prob: 21.6%Best odds: +488EV: +34.5%
• Sal StewartRHBvs Max Scherzer
  xSLGcon: .620Grade: AHR prob: 21.5%Best odds: +488EV: +34.6%

Heart-zone matchups

Hitters who slug in the heart of the zone against starters who get punished there. League average heart-zone xSLGcon allowed: .607.

• Shohei OhtaniLHBvs Seymour, Carson
  Heart xSLGcon: .986Pitcher allowed: .718Meatball score: 0.109
• James WoodLHBvs Manaea, Sean
  Heart xSLGcon: .964Pitcher allowed: .730Meatball score: 0.095
• Cal RaleighSHBvs Kikuchi, Yusei
  Heart xSLGcon: .953Pitcher allowed: .638Meatball score: 0.089
• Max MuncyLHBvs Seymour, Carson
  Heart xSLGcon: .746Pitcher allowed: .718Meatball score: 0.082
• Munetaka MurakamiLHBvs Freeland, Kyle
  Heart xSLGcon: .910Pitcher allowed: .677Meatball score: 0.079
• Corbin CarrollLHBvs Vásquez, Randy
  Heart xSLGcon: .769Pitcher allowed: .655Meatball score: 0.073
• Dominic CanzoneLHBvs Kikuchi, Yusei
  Heart xSLGcon: .782Pitcher allowed: .638Meatball score: 0.073
• Andrés ChaparroRHBvs Manaea, Sean
  Heart xSLGcon: .723Pitcher allowed: .730Meatball score: 0.072
• Kyle SchwarberLHBvs Martinez, Nick
  Heart xSLGcon: .983Pitcher allowed: .587Meatball score: 0.071
• Sal StewartRHBvs Scherzer, Max
  Heart xSLGcon: .825Pitcher allowed: .707Meatball score: 0.071

Seymour, Carson draws 4 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. Kikuchi, Yusei draws 2 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. Manaea, Sean draws 2 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. The board lists at most 2 matchups per pitcher.

Hot contact & danger combos

Hitters squaring the ball up over the last 7 days against home-run-prone starters.

• Yordan AlvarezLHBvs Johnson, Seth
  L7 blast%: 60.0%Pitcher HR/BBE: 5.4%Danger combo: 0.0326
• Jake BurgerRHBvs Kremer, Dean
  L7 blast%: 41.2%Pitcher HR/BBE: 7.4%Danger combo: 0.0306
• Elly De La CruzSHBvs Scherzer, Max
  L7 blast%: 46.7%Pitcher HR/BBE: 6.2%Danger combo: 0.0292
• Sal StewartRHBvs Scherzer, Max
  L7 blast%: 40.0%Pitcher HR/BBE: 6.2%Danger combo: 0.0250
• Heriberto HernándezRHBvs Ritchie, JR
  L7 blast%: 35.3%Pitcher HR/BBE: 6.4%Danger combo: 0.0226
• Agustín RamírezRHBvs Ritchie, JR
  L7 blast%: 33.3%Pitcher HR/BBE: 6.4%Danger combo: 0.0214
• Jo AdellRHBvs Lynch IV, Daniel
  L7 blast%: 57.9%Pitcher HR/BBE: 3.6%Danger combo: 0.0208
• Christian WalkerRHBvs Johnson, Seth
  L7 blast%: 37.5%Pitcher HR/BBE: 5.4%Danger combo: 0.0204
• Zach NetoRHBvs Gilbert, Logan
  L7 blast%: 33.3%Pitcher HR/BBE: 6.0%Danger combo: 0.0199
• Junior CamineroRHBvs Wheeler, Zack
  L7 blast%: 38.1%Pitcher HR/BBE: 5.2%Danger combo: 0.0199

Johnson, Seth draws 2 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. Ritchie, JR draws 2 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. Scherzer, Max draws 2 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups.

Fast bats vs hittable heaters

Hard-swinging hitters against starters whose fastballs get squared up.

• Kyle SchwarberLHBvs Martinez, Nick
  Bat speed (mph): 74.3FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.7
• Bryce HarperLHBvs Martinez, Nick
  Bat speed (mph): 72.4FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.7
• J.T. RealmutoRHBvs Martinez, Nick
  Bat speed (mph): 71.5FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.7
• Edmundo SosaRHBvs Martinez, Nick
  Bat speed (mph): 71.3FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.7
• Trea TurnerRHBvs Martinez, Nick
  Bat speed (mph): 70.0FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.7
• Alec BohmRHBvs Martinez, Nick
  Bat speed (mph): 69.9FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.7
• Brandon MarshLHBvs Martinez, Nick
  Bat speed (mph): 69.7FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.7
• Bryson StottLHBvs Martinez, Nick
  Bat speed (mph): 67.9FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.7
• Justin CrawfordLHBvs Martinez, Nick
  Bat speed (mph): 66.5FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.7
• Denzer GuzmanRHBvs Gilbert, Logan
  Bat speed (mph): 72.4FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.8

Martinez, Nick draws 9 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups.

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