Today's slate features 19 starters with enough of a track record to grade, and several of them are genuinely hittable. The homer-prone starters section highlights five arms worth targeting — headlined by Seth Lugo and Matthew Liberatore, who post the two highest xSLG-allowed figures on the board at .603 and .588 respectively, with Chase Burns, Michael King, and Peter Lambert rounding out the group. Below that you'll find the top full-game home-run targets, where Griffin Conine and Owen Caissie both earn A+ grades against Burns, and Cal Raleigh, Mike Trout, and Seiya Suzuki each clock in at A — all five carry home-run probabilities above 20% and offer plus-money prices ranging from +460 to +620.

The matchup angles section adds another layer to each of those reads — heart-zone tendencies, blast profiles, and miss-distance data each covering ten matchups — giving you a fuller picture on where the real edges sit today. The bullpen report follows with the weakest relief corps on the slate and the hitters best positioned to punish them across a full nine innings.

Today's most homer-prone starters

Today's starting pitchers most prone to the home run on contact, grouped by vulnerability tier — the arms to target.

Tier 2

Peter Lambert (HOU)RHPSEA @ HOU
xSLG allowed: .474Barrel%: 6.8%FB%: 33.7%BBE: 309
Chase Burns (CIN)RHPMIA @ CIN
xSLG allowed: .542Barrel%: 8.5%FB%: 29.8%BBE: 410
Seth Lugo (KC)RHPKC @ LAA
xSLG allowed: .603Barrel%: 9.8%FB%: 29.3%BBE: 836
Matthew Liberatore (STL)LHPSTL @ CHC
xSLG allowed: .588Barrel%: 9.8%FB%: 27.9%BBE: 824

Tier 3

Michael King (SD)RHPSD @ CLE
xSLG allowed: .553Barrel%: 9.6%FB%: 27.8%BBE: 575
Kyle Freeland (COL)LHPCOL @ SF
xSLG allowed: .588Barrel%: 10.0%FB%: 27.6%BBE: 921
Bubba Chandler (PIT)RHPBOS @ PIT
xSLG allowed: .499Barrel%: 6.6%FB%: 27.0%BBE: 422
Steven Matz (TB)LHPBAL @ TB
xSLG allowed: .540Barrel%: 8.8%FB%: 24.1%BBE: 431
Shane Bieber (TOR)RHPNYY @ TOR
xSLG allowed: .648Barrel%: 11.4%FB%: 24.8%BBE: 254

Low

Brandon Pfaadt (ARI)RHPARI @ ATL
xSLG allowed: .567Barrel%: 9.8%FB%: 23.4%BBE: 845
George Kirby (SEA)RHPSEA @ HOU
xSLG allowed: .536Barrel%: 7.9%FB%: 25.2%BBE: 965
Kumar Rocker (TEX)RHPTEX @ ATH
xSLG allowed: .596Barrel%: 9.5%FB%: 23.1%BBE: 538
Gavin Williams (CLE)RHPSD @ CLE
xSLG allowed: .588Barrel%: 10.1%FB%: 26.2%BBE: 782
Sandy Alcantara (MIA)RHPMIA @ CIN
xSLG allowed: .511Barrel%: 7.2%FB%: 24.1%BBE: 1,028
Sean Newcomb (CWS)LHPCWS @ DET
xSLG allowed: .495Barrel%: 5.9%FB%: 20.4%BBE: 442

Tough

Landen Roupp (SF)RHPCOL @ SF
xSLG allowed: .491Barrel%: 6.5%FB%: 22.7%BBE: 662
Andrew Alvarez (WSH)LHPWSH @ NYM
xSLG allowed: .459Barrel%: 4.2%FB%: 17.2%BBE: 262
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)RHPMIL @ LAD
xSLG allowed: .462Barrel%: 6.1%FB%: 23.3%BBE: 789
Clay Holmes (CHC)RHPSTL @ CHC
xSLG allowed: .522Barrel%: 7.0%FB%: 20.2%BBE: 746

Top home run targets today

The bats best set up to go deep against those arms today.

Griffin ConineLHBvs Chase Burns
xSLG: .806Grade: A+HR prob: 22.6%Best odds: +530EV: +53.1%
Owen CaissieLHBvs Chase Burns
xSLG: .733Grade: A+HR prob: 22.2%Best odds: +620EV: +82.1%
Cal RaleighSHBvs Peter Lambert
xSLG: .716Grade: AHR prob: 21.0%Best odds: +460EV: +17.2%
Mike TroutRHBvs Seth Lugo
xSLG: .778Grade: AHR prob: 20.6%Best odds: +525EV: +34.2%
Seiya SuzukiRHBvs Matthew Liberatore
xSLG: .729Grade: AHR prob: 20.5%Best odds: +525EV: +33.1%
Coby MayoRHBvs Steven Matz
xSLG: .723Grade: AHR prob: 20.2%Best odds: +525EV: +40.3%
Pete AlonsoRHBvs Steven Matz
xSLG: .728Grade: AHR prob: 19.6%Best odds: +525EV: +13.5%
Tyler O'NeillRHBvs Steven Matz
xSLG: .764Grade: AHR prob: 19.6%Best odds: +500EV: +23.2%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.LHBvs Shane Bieber
xSLG: .689Grade: AHR prob: 19.4%Best odds: +600EV: +35.8%
Dominic CanzoneLHBvs Peter Lambert
xSLG: .679Grade: AHR prob: 19.3%Best odds: +567EV: +37.5%

Heart-zone matchups

Hitters who slug in the heart of the zone against starters who get punished there. League average heart-zone xSLG allowed: .609.

Mike TroutRHBvs Lugo, Seth
Heart xSLG: .838Pitcher allowed: .694Meatball score: 0.080
Ronald Acuña Jr.RHBvs Pfaadt, Brandon
Heart xSLG: .872Pitcher allowed: .666Meatball score: 0.078
Shohei OhtaniLHBvs Gasser, Robert
Heart xSLG: .990Pitcher allowed: .534Meatball score: 0.073
Zach NetoRHBvs Lugo, Seth
Heart xSLG: .747Pitcher allowed: .694Meatball score: 0.071
Matt OlsonLHBvs Pfaadt, Brandon
Heart xSLG: .797Pitcher allowed: .666Meatball score: 0.071
Rafael DeversLHBvs Freeland, Kyle
Heart xSLG: .814Pitcher allowed: .672Meatball score: 0.071
Jac CaglianoneLHBvs Rodriguez, Grayson
Heart xSLG: .761Pitcher allowed: .716Meatball score: 0.070
Yordan AlvarezLHBvs Kirby, George
Heart xSLG: .944Pitcher allowed: .568Meatball score: 0.069
Spencer JonesLHBvs Bieber, Shane
Heart xSLG: 1.006Pitcher allowed: .704Meatball score: 0.069
Pete AlonsoRHBvs Matz, Steven
Heart xSLG: .856Pitcher allowed: .623Meatball score: 0.068

Pfaadt, Brandon draws 3 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. Lugo, Seth draws 2 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. The board lists at most 2 matchups per pitcher.

Hot contact & danger combos

Hitters squaring the ball up over the last 7 days against home-run-prone starters.

Pete AlonsoRHBvs Matz, Steven
L7 blast%: 61.1%Pitcher HR/BBE: 6.2%Danger combo: 0.0376
Luis García Jr.LHBvs Bieber, Shane
L7 blast%: 47.1%Pitcher HR/BBE: 6.4%Danger combo: 0.0303
Jac CaglianoneLHBvs Rodriguez, Grayson
L7 blast%: 57.1%Pitcher HR/BBE: 5.2%Danger combo: 0.0297
Shohei OhtaniLHBvs Gasser, Robert
L7 blast%: 50.0%Pitcher HR/BBE: 5.5%Danger combo: 0.0275
Gunnar HendersonLHBvs Matz, Steven
L7 blast%: 44.4%Pitcher HR/BBE: 6.2%Danger combo: 0.0274
Lawrence ButlerLHBvs Rocker, Kumar
L7 blast%: 52.9%Pitcher HR/BBE: 4.8%Danger combo: 0.0254
Manny MachadoRHBvs Williams, Gavin
L7 blast%: 38.9%Pitcher HR/BBE: 6.4%Danger combo: 0.0249
Garrett MitchellLHBvs Yamamoto, Yoshinobu
L7 blast%: 56.2%Pitcher HR/BBE: 4.1%Danger combo: 0.0228
Jake BauersLHBvs Yamamoto, Yoshinobu
L7 blast%: 55.0%Pitcher HR/BBE: 4.1%Danger combo: 0.0223
Ty FranceRHBvs Williams, Gavin
L7 blast%: 26.7%Pitcher HR/BBE: 6.4%Danger combo: 0.0171

Matz, Steven draws 2 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. Williams, Gavin draws 2 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. Yamamoto, Yoshinobu draws 2 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups.

Fast bats vs hittable heaters

Hard-swinging hitters against starters whose fastballs get squared up.

Agustín RamírezRHBvs Burns, Chase
Bat speed (mph): 74.2FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.9
Heriberto HernándezRHBvs Burns, Chase
Bat speed (mph): 72.4FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.9
Owen CaissieLHBvs Burns, Chase
Bat speed (mph): 72.4FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.9
Griffin ConineLHBvs Burns, Chase
Bat speed (mph): 71.9FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.9
Joe MackLHBvs Burns, Chase
Bat speed (mph): 71.9FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.9
Otto LopezRHBvs Burns, Chase
Bat speed (mph): 69.6FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.9
Cam SmithRHBvs Kirby, George
Bat speed (mph): 75.6FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0
Garrett MitchellLHBvs Yamamoto, Yoshinobu
Bat speed (mph): 75.5FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0
Javier SanojaRHBvs Burns, Chase
Bat speed (mph): 67.7FF/SI miss dist (in): 0.9
Yordan AlvarezLHBvs Kirby, George
Bat speed (mph): 74.8FF/SI miss dist (in): 1.0

Burns, Chase draws 7 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups. Kirby, George draws 2 of the 10 highest-scoring matchups.

Always remember that betting involves risk. These are model-driven analyses provided by an AI for informational purposes only. They do not represent direct betting advice or a guarantee of any outcome. Please gamble responsibly; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.