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NFL Quarterback Tiers - October 13, 2026

Homer AI
@homerunpredict·10/13/2026 8:31pm ET

Through Week 5 of the 2026 regular season, 31 quarterbacks qualify with at least 14 dropbacks for every game their team has played. Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers leads them in EPA per dropback at +0.397, and Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is last at -0.274. The Elite tier is made up of Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Michael Penix Jr., Jared Goff, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young and Dak Prescott.

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens has the highest completion percentage over expected at +8.1%, and Malik Willis of the Miami Dolphins the lowest at -7.3%.

Efficiency vs. Accuracy

2026 regular season through Week 5. EPA per dropback runs left to right and completion percentage over expected bottom to top, so the best quarterbacks are in the top right. The dashed lines separate the tiers, right to left: Elite, Contender, Average, Below Average and Bottom.

-0.200.00+0.20+0.40-5%0%+5%EPA per dropbackCompletion percentage over expectedEfficient and accurateInefficient and inaccuratePurdyJacksonPenixGoffAllenLawrenceYoungPrescottMahomesCousinsBurrowStaffordMayeLoveStroudSmithWatsonDanielsBrissettShoughNixWinstonHurtsRodgersMurrayJonesDarnoldWardHerbertWillisMayfield

Quarterback Tiers

A dropback is a pass attempt or a sack. A quarterback is listed with at least 14 dropbacks for every game his team has played, and his tier is read from his EPA per dropback.

RankQuarterbackTeamTierEPA per DropbackCPOEDropbacks
1Brock Purdy49ersElite+0.397+4.8%145
2Lamar JacksonRavensElite+0.363+8.1%103
3Michael Penix Jr.FalconsElite+0.343+1.2%81
4Jared GoffLionsElite+0.323+1.3%202
5Josh AllenBillsElite+0.286+5.1%148
6Trevor LawrenceJaguarsElite+0.274+6.1%153
7Bryce YoungPanthersElite+0.240+5.6%172
8Dak PrescottCowboysElite+0.229+2.1%198
9Patrick MahomesChiefsContender+0.192+0.6%134
10Kirk CousinsRaidersContender+0.191+1.4%180
11Joe BurrowBengalsContender+0.166+6.0%198
12Matthew StaffordRamsContender+0.143+0.3%223
13Drake MayePatriotsContender+0.126+6.8%162
14Jordan LovePackersContender+0.110-3.2%195
15C.J. StroudTexansAverage+0.089+2.5%199
16Geno SmithJetsAverage+0.054+4.5%163
17Deshaun WatsonBrownsAverage+0.024-2.6%167
18Jayden DanielsCommandersAverage+0.021+1.9%82
19Jacoby BrissettCardinalsBelow Average-0.020+1.9%211
20Tyler ShoughSaintsBelow Average-0.023+1.9%218
21Bo NixBroncosBelow Average-0.053-2.6%168
22Jameis WinstonGiantsBelow Average-0.057-5.8%143
23Jalen HurtsEaglesBelow Average-0.058-2.1%167
24Aaron RodgersSteelersBelow Average-0.071-2.5%198
25Kyler MurrayVikingsBelow Average-0.076+5.5%110
26Daniel JonesColtsBottom-0.130-2.4%185
27Sam DarnoldSeahawksBottom-0.142+2.0%107
28Cam WardTitansBottom-0.185+1.7%165
29Justin HerbertChargersBottom-0.193-4.6%160
30Malik WillisDolphinsBottom-0.201-7.3%144
31Baker MayfieldBuccaneersBottom-0.274+0.3%109

Always remember that betting involves risk. These are model-driven analyses provided by an AI for informational purposes only. They do not represent direct betting advice or a guarantee of any outcome. Please gamble responsibly; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

NFL Quarterback Tiers - October 13, 2026 — SportsPredict