NFL Quarterback Tiers - October 13, 2026
Through Week 5 of the 2026 regular season, 31 quarterbacks qualify with at least 14 dropbacks for every game their team has played. Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers leads them in EPA per dropback at +0.397, and Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is last at -0.274. The Elite tier is made up of Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Michael Penix Jr., Jared Goff, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young and Dak Prescott.
Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens has the highest completion percentage over expected at +8.1%, and Malik Willis of the Miami Dolphins the lowest at -7.3%.
Efficiency vs. Accuracy
2026 regular season through Week 5. EPA per dropback runs left to right and completion percentage over expected bottom to top, so the best quarterbacks are in the top right. The dashed lines separate the tiers, right to left: Elite, Contender, Average, Below Average and Bottom.
Quarterback Tiers
A dropback is a pass attempt or a sack. A quarterback is listed with at least 14 dropbacks for every game his team has played, and his tier is read from his EPA per dropback.
| Rank | Quarterback | Team | Tier | EPA per Dropback | CPOE | Dropbacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | 49ers | Elite | +0.397 | +4.8% | 145 |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | Ravens | Elite | +0.363 | +8.1% | 103 |
| 3 | Michael Penix Jr. | Falcons | Elite | +0.343 | +1.2% | 81 |
| 4 | Jared Goff | Lions | Elite | +0.323 | +1.3% | 202 |
| 5 | Josh Allen | Bills | Elite | +0.286 | +5.1% | 148 |
| 6 | Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | Elite | +0.274 | +6.1% | 153 |
| 7 | Bryce Young | Panthers | Elite | +0.240 | +5.6% | 172 |
| 8 | Dak Prescott | Cowboys | Elite | +0.229 | +2.1% | 198 |
| 9 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | Contender | +0.192 | +0.6% | 134 |
| 10 | Kirk Cousins | Raiders | Contender | +0.191 | +1.4% | 180 |
| 11 | Joe Burrow | Bengals | Contender | +0.166 | +6.0% | 198 |
| 12 | Matthew Stafford | Rams | Contender | +0.143 | +0.3% | 223 |
| 13 | Drake Maye | Patriots | Contender | +0.126 | +6.8% | 162 |
| 14 | Jordan Love | Packers | Contender | +0.110 | -3.2% | 195 |
| 15 | C.J. Stroud | Texans | Average | +0.089 | +2.5% | 199 |
| 16 | Geno Smith | Jets | Average | +0.054 | +4.5% | 163 |
| 17 | Deshaun Watson | Browns | Average | +0.024 | -2.6% | 167 |
| 18 | Jayden Daniels | Commanders | Average | +0.021 | +1.9% | 82 |
| 19 | Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | Below Average | -0.020 | +1.9% | 211 |
| 20 | Tyler Shough | Saints | Below Average | -0.023 | +1.9% | 218 |
| 21 | Bo Nix | Broncos | Below Average | -0.053 | -2.6% | 168 |
| 22 | Jameis Winston | Giants | Below Average | -0.057 | -5.8% | 143 |
| 23 | Jalen Hurts | Eagles | Below Average | -0.058 | -2.1% | 167 |
| 24 | Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | Below Average | -0.071 | -2.5% | 198 |
| 25 | Kyler Murray | Vikings | Below Average | -0.076 | +5.5% | 110 |
| 26 | Daniel Jones | Colts | Bottom | -0.130 | -2.4% | 185 |
| 27 | Sam Darnold | Seahawks | Bottom | -0.142 | +2.0% | 107 |
| 28 | Cam Ward | Titans | Bottom | -0.185 | +1.7% | 165 |
| 29 | Justin Herbert | Chargers | Bottom | -0.193 | -4.6% | 160 |
| 30 | Malik Willis | Dolphins | Bottom | -0.201 | -7.3% | 144 |
| 31 | Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | Bottom | -0.274 | +0.3% | 109 |
Always remember that betting involves risk. These are model-driven analyses provided by an AI for informational purposes only. They do not represent direct betting advice or a guarantee of any outcome. Please gamble responsibly; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
