The biggest mismatches of Week 10, from the 2026 regular season through Week 9. Week 10's biggest passing mismatch is the 49ers passing offense (+0.290 EPA per dropback, 1st in the NFL) against the Cowboys pass defense (+0.187 allowed, 29th). The biggest edge for a pass defense is the Packers pass defense (-0.027 allowed, 5th in the NFL) against the Vikings passing offense (-0.117 EPA per dropback, 29th). In the red zone, the biggest mismatch is the Panthers offense (3.6 red-zone trips a game, 12th) against the Saints defense (4.4 allowed, 32nd).
The most favorable position matchup is Hunter Henry and the Patriots tight ends against the Lions defense, which has allowed 88.0 receiving yards a game to opposing tight ends, +61% against the league. The toughest is Gunnar Helm and the Titans tight ends against the Jaguars defense, which has allowed 31.2 receiving yards a game to opposing tight ends, -43% against the league.
Passing Mismatches
2026 regular season through Week 9. Each Week 10 offense's passing against the pass defense it faces: how far the offense's EPA per dropback and the EPA per dropback the defense allows sit above the league average, together. A bar to the right is the offense's edge, to the left the defense's. Every matchup at least 0.15 apart with both teams at 4 or more games is charted, the biggest each way.
| Offense | EPA per Dropback | Rank | Defense | EPA per Dropback Allowed | Rank | Edge | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | +0.290 | 1st | Cowboys | +0.187 | 29th | Offense | +0.343 |
| Bills | +0.250 | 3rd | Jets | +0.195 | 30th | Offense | +0.313 |
| Jaguars | +0.231 | 5th | Titans | +0.174 | 26th | Offense | +0.272 |
| Lions | +0.237 | 4th | Patriots | +0.145 | 24th | Offense | +0.249 |
| Rams | +0.075 | 18th | Cardinals | +0.276 | 32nd | Offense | +0.218 |
| Steelers | -0.072 | 26th | Bengals | +0.038 | 13th | Defense | +0.167 |
| Falcons | -0.103 | 28th | Chiefs | +0.023 | 11th | Defense | +0.213 |
| Chargers | -0.189 | 31st | Ravens | +0.096 | 20th | Defense | +0.226 |
| Titans | -0.060 | 25th | Jaguars | -0.067 | 3rd | Defense | +0.260 |
| Vikings | -0.117 | 29th | Packers | -0.027 | 5th | Defense | +0.277 |
Red Zone Mismatches
2026 regular season through Week 9. Each Week 10 offense's red-zone trips per game (drives that reach the opponent's 20) against the trips per game the defense it faces allows: how far the two sit above the league average, together. A bar to the right is the offense's edge, to the left the defense's. Every matchup at least 1.0 trips a game apart with both teams at 4 or more games is charted, the biggest each way.
| Offense | Red-Zone Trips per Game | Rank | Defense | Trips Allowed per Game | Rank | Edge | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 3.6 | 12th | Saints | 4.4 | 32nd | Offense | +1.4 |
| Bills | 4.2 | 1st | Jets | 3.6 | 18th | Offense | +1.2 |
| Lions | 4.2 | 2nd | Patriots | 3.6 | 17th | Offense | +1.2 |
| Rams | 4.0 | 7th | Cardinals | 3.7 | 21st | Offense | +1.1 |
| Falcons | 2.9 | 22nd | Chiefs | 2.6 | 6th | Defense | +1.1 |
| Browns | 2.4 | 29th | Texans | 2.9 | 10th | Defense | +1.3 |
| Dolphins | 2.6 | 28th | Colts | 2.7 | 7th | Defense | +1.3 |
| Commanders | 2.8 | 26th | Giants | 2.5 | 4th | Defense | +1.3 |
Position Mismatches
2026 regular season through Week 9. What each defense has allowed per game to the position it faces in Week 10, against the league average: passing yards to quarterbacks, rushing yards to running backs and receiving yards to wide receivers and tight ends. A bar to the right is a defense that allows at least 10% more than average, favorable for the players it faces; to the left one that allows at least 10% less, tough for them. The furthest from average each way are charted. The lead player is the offense's expected starting quarterback, or its receiver or back with the largest share of the team's targets or carries over its last four games.
| Offense | Position | Lead Player | Defense | Stat | Allowed per Game | League Average | Vs. League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Tight Ends | Hunter Henry | Lions | Receiving Yards | 88.0 | 54.7 | +61% |
| Steelers | Tight Ends | Pat Freiermuth | Bengals | Receiving Yards | 80.6 | 54.7 | +47% |
| Seahawks | Running Backs | Emanuel Wilson | Raiders | Rushing Yards | 131.7 | 93.0 | +42% |
| Jaguars | Wide Receivers | Parker Washington | Titans | Receiving Yards | 194.9 | 146.8 | +33% |
| Giants | Tight Ends | Isaiah Likely | Commanders | Receiving Yards | 68.8 | 54.7 | +26% |
| Texans | Running Backs | Woody Marks | Browns | Rushing Yards | 115.1 | 93.0 | +24% |
| Browns | Wide Receivers | Denzel Boston | Texans | Receiving Yards | 180.1 | 146.8 | +23% |
| Panthers | Running Backs | Chuba Hubbard | Saints | Rushing Yards | 113.4 | 93.0 | +22% |
| Cowboys | Running Backs | Javonte Williams | 49ers | Rushing Yards | 71.5 | 93.0 | -23% |
| Bengals | Running Backs | Chase Brown | Steelers | Rushing Yards | 70.0 | 93.0 | -25% |
| Raiders | Running Backs | Mike Washington Jr. | Seahawks | Rushing Yards | 69.9 | 93.0 | -25% |
| Vikings | Tight Ends | T.J. Hockenson | Packers | Receiving Yards | 41.0 | 54.7 | -25% |
| Titans | Running Backs | Tony Pollard | Jaguars | Rushing Yards | 68.2 | 93.0 | -27% |
| Raiders | Quarterbacks | Kirk Cousins | Seahawks | Passing Yards | 168.8 | 233.3 | -28% |
| Raiders | Wide Receivers | Tre Tucker | Seahawks | Receiving Yards | 99.6 | 146.8 | -32% |
| Titans | Tight Ends | Gunnar Helm | Jaguars | Receiving Yards | 31.2 | 54.7 | -43% |
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