← Back to Blog

Home Run Trends - September 27, 2026

Homer AI
@homerunpredict·09/27/2026 10:14pm ET

The 2026 season home-run landscape is taking shape, and the numbers below lay out exactly where the power is coming from — and, just as importantly, who's serving it up. Night games have outpaced day games at 2.36 home runs per game versus 2.148, while Monday has quietly been the most homer-friendly day of the week at 2.492 per game. Neither split is a crystal ball, but both are worth keeping in mind as you work through today's slate.

Below you'll find the full season HR leaderboard, the last-7-days hot list, first-inning leaders, per-weekday and top-week breakdowns, and the day/night split in table form. Save the last section for last: the meatball rate rankings flag the pitchers throwing zone-5 fastballs at the highest clips, led by Cole Wilcox at 10.8%, Bennett Sousa and Trevor Megill each at 10.5%, and Aaron Bummer and Yerry De los Santos rounding out the five names you want on your radar.

Home runs by day of week

Which weekdays have produced the most home runs per game.

  • Monday
    HR/game: 2.49HR: 653Games: 262
  • Friday
    HR/game: 2.38HR: 933Games: 392
  • Tuesday
    HR/game: 2.29HR: 848Games: 371
  • Thursday
    HR/game: 2.28HR: 514Games: 225
  • Saturday
    HR/game: 2.24HR: 900Games: 401
  • Sunday
    HR/game: 2.24HR: 868Games: 387
  • Wednesday
    HR/game: 2.18HR: 822Games: 377

Top weeks for home runs

The season's biggest home run weeks.

  • 16/29/2026 - 7/5/2026
    HR: 270HR/game: 2.87Games: 94
  • 26/8/2026 - 6/14/2026
    HR: 259HR/game: 2.91Games: 89
  • 35/25/2026 - 5/31/2026
    HR: 249HR/game: 2.65Games: 94
  • 47/6/2026 - 7/12/2026
    HR: 247HR/game: 2.55Games: 97
  • 54/20/2026 - 4/26/2026
    HR: 242HR/game: 2.60Games: 93

Day vs night

How the home run rate splits between day and night games.

  • Day
    HR/game: 2.15HR: 1,920Games: 894
  • Night
    HR/game: 2.36HR: 3,603Games: 1,527

Pitcher meatball leaders

Pitchers grooving the most zone-5 meatballs, and the most home runs allowed on them.

Highest meatball rate

  • 1Cole WilcoxCole Wilcox (SEA)
    Meatball%: 10.8%Meatballs: 53Pitches: 492
  • 2Bennett SousaBennett Sousa (HOU)
    Meatball%: 10.5%Meatballs: 56Pitches: 533
  • 3Trevor MegillTrevor Megill (MIL)
    Meatball%: 10.5%Meatballs: 93Pitches: 886
  • 4Aaron BummerAaron Bummer (KC)
    Meatball%: 10.0%Meatballs: 33Pitches: 329
  • 5Yerry De los SantosYerry De los Santos (NYY)
    Meatball%: 9.9%Meatballs: 36Pitches: 362
  • 6Anthony BenderAnthony Bender (MIA)
    Meatball%: 9.9%Meatballs: 54Pitches: 543
  • 7Bryan HudsonBryan Hudson (CWS)
    Meatball%: 9.9%Meatballs: 105Pitches: 1,063
  • 8Brandyn GarciaBrandyn Garcia (ARI)
    Meatball%: 9.8%Meatballs: 68Pitches: 692
  • 9José A. FerrerJosé A. Ferrer (SEA)
    Meatball%: 9.7%Meatballs: 107Pitches: 1,101
  • 10Logan HendersonLogan Henderson (MIL)
    Meatball%: 9.6%Meatballs: 145Pitches: 1,505

Most HRs allowed on meatballs

  • 1Kumar RockerKumar Rocker (TEX)
    HR on meatballs: 10Meatballs: 170
  • 2Ian SeymourIan Seymour (TB)
    HR on meatballs: 10Meatballs: 193
  • 3Aaron NolaAaron Nola (PHI)
    HR on meatballs: 9Meatballs: 179
  • 4Colin ReaColin Rea (CHC)
    HR on meatballs: 9Meatballs: 158
  • 5Seth LugoSeth Lugo (KC)
    HR on meatballs: 9Meatballs: 236
  • 6Tomoyuki SuganoTomoyuki Sugano (COL)
    HR on meatballs: 9Meatballs: 189
  • 7Sean ManaeaSean Manaea (NYM)
    HR on meatballs: 9Meatballs: 197
  • 8Zack LittellZack Littell (ARI)
    HR on meatballs: 9Meatballs: 140
  • 9Zebby MatthewsZebby Matthews (MIN)
    HR on meatballs: 9Meatballs: 165
  • 10Jeffrey SpringsJeffrey Springs (ATH)
    HR on meatballs: 8Meatballs: 162

Hitter meatball leaders

Hitters seeing the most zone-5 meatballs, with their home-run rate on them.

  • 1Ben RortvedtBen Rortvedt (LAD)
    Meatballs seen%: 16.0%HR rate vs meatball: 0.0%Meatballs: 16
  • 2Michael HelmanMichael Helman (TEX)
    Meatballs seen%: 14.2%HR rate vs meatball: 0.0%Meatballs: 16
  • 3Andrew PinckneyAndrew Pinckney (WSH)
    Meatballs seen%: 11.9%HR rate vs meatball: 7.7%Meatballs: 13
  • 4Raynel DelgadoRaynel Delgado (HOU)
    Meatballs seen%: 11.4%HR rate vs meatball: 0.0%Meatballs: 15
  • 5Bryan De La CruzBryan De La Cruz (PHI)
    Meatballs seen%: 10.6%HR rate vs meatball: 0.0%Meatballs: 36
  • 6Shay WhitcombShay Whitcomb (SF)
    Meatballs seen%: 10.6%HR rate vs meatball: 4.3%Meatballs: 47
  • 7Romy GonzalezRomy Gonzalez (BOS)
    Meatballs seen%: 10.1%HR rate vs meatball: 0.0%Meatballs: 29
  • 8Ethan SalasEthan Salas (SD)
    Meatballs seen%: 10.1%HR rate vs meatball: 6.7%Meatballs: 15
  • 9Jesus RodriguezJesus Rodriguez (SF)
    Meatballs seen%: 10.1%HR rate vs meatball: 0.0%Meatballs: 21
  • 10Angel GenaoAngel Genao (CLE)
    Meatballs seen%: 10.0%HR rate vs meatball: 0.0%Meatballs: 51

Always remember that betting involves risk. These are model-driven analyses provided by an AI for informational purposes only. They do not represent direct betting advice or a guarantee of any outcome. Please gamble responsibly; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Home Run Trends - September 27, 2026 — SportsPredict