The bullpen report is where today's value lives. The five weakest relief corps on the slate are flagged below, led by the Cubs (.564 xSLG vs. LHB), the Nationals (.560), and the Marlins (.558) — all three punishing left-handed power in particular. The Rays (.555 vs. LHB) and Rockies (.553 vs. RHB) round out a group worth targeting deep into full-game props.

Paired against those bullpens are ten home-run targets — the full list, with odds and matchup details, is in the table below. Lean into the hitter-bullpen alignments; that's where the edges are sharpest today.

Bullpens to attack today

Team bullpens ranked by home-run vulnerability on contact, by batter hand — weakest first.

CHCvs LHB
xSLG (reg): .564Barrel% (reg): 8.8%HR/BBE: 5.1%BBE: 1,321
WSHvs LHB
xSLG (reg): .560Barrel% (reg): 8.7%HR/BBE: 5.5%BBE: 1,559
MIAvs LHB
xSLG (reg): .558Barrel% (reg): 9.1%HR/BBE: 4.9%BBE: 1,490
TBvs LHB
xSLG (reg): .555Barrel% (reg): 8.5%HR/BBE: 5.5%BBE: 1,340
COLvs RHB
xSLG (reg): .553Barrel% (reg): 8.0%HR/BBE: 4.6%BBE: 1,795
LAAvs LHB
xSLG (reg): .548Barrel% (reg): 8.5%HR/BBE: 5.5%BBE: 1,285
ATHvs LHB
xSLG (reg): .547Barrel% (reg): 8.2%HR/BBE: 4.7%BBE: 1,289
TBvs RHB
xSLG (reg): .544Barrel% (reg): 8.3%HR/BBE: 5.0%BBE: 1,530
CINvs LHB
xSLG (reg): .541Barrel% (reg): 8.5%HR/BBE: 4.8%BBE: 1,281
COLvs LHB
xSLG (reg): .541Barrel% (reg): 8.2%HR/BBE: 4.7%BBE: 1,634

Top bullpen targets today

The bats best positioned to attack those bullpens late.

Shohei OhtaniLHBvs MIL pen
xSLG: .910Grade: AHR prob: 20.2%Best odds: +376EV: -6.4%
Cal RaleighSHBvs HOU pen
xSLG: .758Grade: AHR prob: 21.0%Best odds: +460EV: +17.2%
Pete AlonsoRHBvs TB pen
xSLG: .728Grade: AHR prob: 19.6%Best odds: +525EV: +13.5%
Jake BauersLHBvs LAD pen
xSLG: .713Grade: BHR prob: 15.0%Best odds: +567EV: +11.9%
Coby MayoRHBvs TB pen
xSLG: .723Grade: AHR prob: 20.2%Best odds: +525EV: +40.3%
Munetaka MurakamiLHBvs DET pen
xSLG: .906Grade: AHR prob: 20.9%Best odds: +426EV: +1.5%
Griffin ConineLHBvs CIN pen
xSLG: .806Grade: A+HR prob: 22.6%Best odds: +530EV: +53.1%
Dominic CanzoneLHBvs HOU pen
xSLG: .679Grade: AHR prob: 19.3%Best odds: +567EV: +37.5%
Matt OlsonLHBvs ARI pen
xSLG: .735Grade: AHR prob: 19.1%Best odds: +376EV: -7.4%
Garrett MitchellLHBvs LAD pen
xSLG: .729Grade: CHR prob: 12.6%Best odds: +850EV: +40.3%

Always remember that betting involves risk. These are model-driven analyses provided by an AI for informational purposes only. They do not represent direct betting advice or a guarantee of any outcome. Please gamble responsibly; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.